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The Evidence Layer

Evidence Notes

Atomic, sourced facts — the proven bricks. Each note carries the claim, its origin, the phrasing we’ll defend, the caveat we keep in the open, and what it proves.
Research layer · v1 (seed)2 notesInformational — not an offer
Note schema — Claim · Origin · Defensible phrasing · Caveat · Use (what it proves). The defensible phrasing is the line cleared for publication; the caveat is the disclosed weakness that keeps the note citable rather than promotional.
Pets Over Babies (South Korea)EN-01
Claim
On South Korea’s largest online marketplace, pet strollers were 57% of stroller sales in the first three quarters of 2023 versus 43% for baby strollers — the first time pet exceeded baby, up from 33% (2021) and 36% (2022).
Origin
Gmarket, via The Korea Times / Korea Herald / Wall Street Journal, Dec 2023.
Defensible phrasing
On South Korea’s largest online marketplace, pet strollers outsold baby strollers in 2023 — the first time pet exceeded baby.
Caveat
A single marketplace’s sales mix, in a country with an exceptionally low birth rate — a directional signal of the humanization curve, not a national statistic.
Use · proves
Longevity / humanization: when births fall, dependent-spend migrates to dogs. Korea is the leading-indicator canary for a curve other markets are earlier on.
4 · Longevity1 · SizeThe Korea Times ↗
Hoarded Like Toilet Paper (COVID)EN-02
Claim
During COVID, dog food faced shortage and rationing; the Pet Food Institute urged buying only what was needed to avoid a “toilet-paper-style” crisis; Royal Canin asked customers for 2–3 bags maximum; ~12.6M U.S. households acquired a pet Mar–Dec 2020 (APPA).
Origin
Pet Food Institute; Royal Canin; APPA — via Best Life / FreightWaves / Global News, 2020–2021.
Defensible phrasing
Under pandemic stress, dog food was rationed like a household staple, and the industry asked consumers not to panic-buy.
Caveat
Supply-chain stress reflects logistics as well as demand; the rationing demonstrates consumer behavior, not a price or quantity series.
Use · proves
Longevity / resilience: under maximum stress, dog food behaved like a non-discretionary staple, not a luxury — resilience demonstrated, not asserted.
4 · LongevityFreightWaves ↗
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